能源在一端燃烧，通胀在另一端扩散。 The Fed is still watching. The RBA has already acted.
Energy burns at one end. Inflation spreads at the other.
| 标普500S&P 500 | 6,716 | +0.25% | 布伦特原油Brent Crude | $103.50 | +3% |
| 纳斯达克Nasdaq | 22,479 | +0.47% | WTI | ~$98 | 反弹Rebounding |
| 道琼斯Dow Jones | 46,993 | +0.10% | 黄金Gold | $5,010 | 承压Under pressure |
| 美债10YUS 10Y | 4.28% | 小幅回落Eased | DXY | 99.5 | 平稳Steady |
| Bitcoin | ~$73K | 维持Holding | AUD/USD | 0.6980 | 跌破0.70Broke 0.70 |
| VIX | ~24.5 | 回落Declining | ASX 200 | ~8,450 | 承压Under press. |
- • 美联储周三议息（3月18日） → 市场押注按兵不动，焦点在点阵图是否取消全年降息
- • RBA 5:4加息至4.10% → 消费者信心跌至疫情初期水平，四大行预计5月再加
- • 布伦特回升至$103.50 → 伊朗再度打击UAE能源设施，周一跌幅部分抹去
- • 亚洲输入性通胀持续 → 新西兰CPI预期从3.1%上调至3.6%，能源冲击向亚太扩散
- • Fed decision Wednesday (March 18, 2pm ET) → Hold expected; dot plot may eliminate all 2026 cuts
- • RBA hiked 5-4 to 4.10% → Consumer confidence at pandemic-era lows; Big Four expect May hike to 4.35%
- • Brent back at $103.50 → Iran struck UAE energy facility; Monday's oil relief partially reversed
- • Asia-Pacific inflation pressures spreading → NZ CPI outlook raised from 3.1% to 3.6%
周二美股小幅续涨：标普500涨0.25%收6,716，纳指涨0.47%，道指涨0.10%收46,993。布伦特原油升至103.50美元——伊朗对阿联酋能源设施发动新一轮打击，周一的油价回落被部分抹去。霍尔木兹局势并未根本好转，贝森特声明带来的情绪窗口正在收窄。
焦点转向美联储（周三美东时间下午2点议息，鲍威尔随后发布会）。市场普遍预期维持利率不变，但真正的信号在点阵图：6月降息概率已从56%降至23%，9月概率从接近100%降至54%。如果点阵图显示全年降息次数从一次降为零，将对风险资产形成新一轮压力。
US equities extended their cautious recovery on Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.25% to 6,716, the Nasdaq added 0.47%, and the Dow edged up 0.10% to 46,993. Brent crude climbed back to $103.50 after Iran launched fresh strikes on UAE energy infrastructure, partially reversing Monday's pullback. The Bessent-driven relief window is narrowing.
Wednesday's FOMC decision (2pm ET) is the defining event of the week. A hold is widely expected, but the dot plot is where the real signal lies. June rate-cut odds have fallen from 56% to 23%. September, once priced at near-100%, is now at 54%. If the dot plot removes all projected 2026 cuts, risk assets will face a fresh repricing.
RBA已将现金利率上调25个基点至4.10%，投票结果5:4，为去年7月以来首次非一致决定。Bullock行长明确表示，分歧在于时机，而非方向——所有委员均认同进一步收紧必要。声明强调国内需求超过供给是通胀高企的根本原因，中东油价冲击是额外的上行风险。
市场反应立竿见影：澳元跌破0.70关口，报0.6980。ANZ-Roy Morgan消费者信心指数跌至68.5，为2020年3月疫情封锁以来最低。四大银行中ANZ和NAB已明确预期5月再加息25个基点至4.35%，届时将完全抹去2025年三次降息的成果。
The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp to 4.10% in a 5-4 split vote — the most contested decision since July last year. Governor Bullock stated the divide was over timing, not direction: all board members agreed further tightening is necessary. The statement cited domestic demand exceeding supply as the primary inflation driver, with the Middle East oil shock as an additional upside risk.
The market reaction was immediate. The AUD broke below 0.70, last at 0.6980. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index fell to 68.5, its lowest since March 2020 pandemic lockdowns. ANZ and NAB have both flagged a further 25bp hike in May to 4.35%, which would fully reverse the three cuts made in 2025.
能源冲击正在向亚洲更广泛地扩散。新西兰通胀预期已从3.1%上调至3.6%，反映市场对油价持续高位的重新定价。中国、日本等净能源进口国同样面临输入性通胀累积压力。
但分化同样存在。加拿大CPI意外降至1.8%，核心CPI降至2.3%，为4月降息提供了清晰依据——这与RBA的加息路径形成鲜明对照。同一根能源冲击，击中不同经济体的方式并不相同：净出口国受益，净进口国承压。全球央行之间的政策分化，正在加速。
The energy shock is spreading laterally across Asia-Pacific. New Zealand inflation expectations have been revised up from 3.1% to 3.6%, reflecting the market's repricing of a sustained high-oil environment. China, Japan, and other net energy importers face accumulating imported inflation pressure with limited policy room to absorb it.
Divergence, however, is sharpening. Canada's CPI surprised sharply lower at 1.8% — well below the BoC's 2% target — opening the door for an April rate cut. The contrast with the RBA's hike is stark. Net exporters benefit from the windfall; net importers absorb the cost. Global monetary policy divergence is accelerating.
央行，正在中间被迫选择。 Energy burns at one end. Inflation spreads at the other.
Central banks, in the middle, are being forced to choose.
市场不会停止波动。
但判断，可以慢一点。 The world won't stop changing.
Markets won't stop reacting.
But judgment can be slower.